A Stockholm-based macro hedge fund reveals its bet on the first G10 rate hike

A EUR 1.2bn hedge fund has identified which central bank is likely to be the most hawkish after the Covid-19 crisis.

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"We think Norges Bank will be the first central bank [in the G10 currency sphere] to raise rates," said Bjørn Roger Wilhelmsen, partner and chief economist at Nordkinn, an absolute return macro hedge fund based in Stockholm.

He says the first rate hike "will probably come at the end of 2021." That’s currently only reflected in market pricing "to a smaller extent," he said. Nordkinn’s strategy has returned just over 6 percent so far this year, compared to its return target of 4 percent over the risk-free rate.

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