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Miracle scenario needed for quick pandemic recovery, says CEO of Finnish State Pension Fund

The coronavirus could lead to hard choices and a prolonged recession that will change the markets for good, says Löyttyniemi, who recently returned to VER from a post at EU's Single Resolution Board.

Timo Löyttyniemi, CEO, State Pension Fund of Finland (VER). | Photo: PR / VER

There are four scenarios for what may happen with the economy and markets due to the coronavirus pandemic, says CEO of State Pension Fund of Finland (VER) Timo Löyttyniemi. The four scenarios - miracle, effective treatment, baseline and depression - are not mutually exclusive and may overlap or materialize in succession, Löyttyniemi writes on the VER website.

In Löyttyniemi's first scenario, the miracle scenario, the coronavirus will be beaten with a vaccine or disappear as a result of natural debilitation within months. In that case, social interaction would be quickly restored and demand for restaurant and travel services would pick up. For the economy and markets, it would mean a V-shaped recovery, Löyttyniemi writes.

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